Promised Return Checker
"Just 1% a day." "10% every month, guaranteed." Numbers like these sound small. Put the promise in here and see what it really claims over a year — next to what banks, the stock market and the best investors actually do.
Compared with the real world
Bars use a log scale so big numbers fit. Real-world figures are rough long-term averages, not promises.
What this tool does
It takes any return — per day, week, month or year — and turns it into one number you can compare: the yearly return if you keep reinvesting. Then it puts that number next to bank savings, a broad stock market, and the best long-term investors. It also shows how fast your money would double if the promise were true, which makes an impossible promise easy to see.
When to use it
- Someone offers you a "trading", crypto, forex or "investment club" deal with a fixed return.
- A friend says they already earn a steady percentage every week or month.
- A business opportunity shows you a monthly percentage instead of a clear product.
How to read the result
- Up to about 10% a year: normal range for long-term investing — and still not guaranteed.
- 10–20% a year: high. Possible in some years, but a steady promise needs strong proof.
- 20–50% a year: better than the best investors in history, every year. Very unlikely.
- Above 50% a year: classic scam territory. Ponzi's 1920 promise was more than 2,500%.
- The checkboxes add warnings. A "guaranteed" high return plus a bonus for bringing friends is the Ponzi pattern.
What it cannot tell you
- It cannot check a specific company or say if it is legal.
- A low number does not prove it is safe. Some frauds promise small, steady returns to look calm.
- The real-world numbers are rough long-term averages. Markets can fall 30% or more in a bad year.
- It is not financial advice. Nothing you type is saved or sent anywhere.
Questions people ask
Is 10% a month a good return?
It is not a realistic return. If you keep reinvesting, 10% a month becomes more than 200% a year. Even the best investors in history averaged close to 20% a year. A steady 10% a month is a classic sign of a Ponzi scheme.
What return did Charles Ponzi promise?
In 1920 Ponzi promised 50% profit in 45 days. Over a year, with reinvesting, that is more than 2,500%. The early investors were paid with money from newer investors. Read the story in our fact check.
What is a normal yearly return?
Roughly: bank savings a few percent a year, and broad stock markets around 7–10% a year on average over long periods, with some very bad years. Anything much higher, promised as safe, needs very strong proof.
Why does the tool compound the return?
Most schemes tell you to reinvest your profits. Compounding shows what the promise really claims over a year. The simple yearly number is shown too.
Can a low return still be a scam?
Yes. Some frauds promise modest, very steady returns to look safe. That is why the tool also asks about guarantees, recruiting bonuses and withdrawal limits.